Prime suspects to the paris attack

Who carried out the Paris attacks?
Here are the prime suspects
There are multiple scenarios for who may be
responsible for the terror attacks but following recent
atrocities Isis will be a main subject of investigation
More analysis Topics Paris attacks France
Europe Paris
Islamic State
A policeman at the Place de la Republique in central
Paris. The investigation into the attacks in the French
capital will likely focus on Islamic State.
It is clearly extremely early in the investigation. But
the best guide to who might be behind the attacks in
Paris is earlier violence in France or involving French
citizens elsewhere in Europe .
One scenario is an attack directly organised and
controlled by the Islamic State from somewhere in
Syria and Iraq. Previously, Isis have merely called on
local followers in Europe to act alone. However,
following the bombing of the Metrojet airbus over the
Sinai earlier this month, it is clear the threat from Isis
is evolving very fast and the group is the obvious
suspect. This new attack is consistent with a steady
escalation over 18 months of strikes against
international targets.
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A team could have been sent into France, or recruited
in France , or both, and then carefully managed from
overseas. There are an estimated 520 French citizens
fighting in Syria and 250 “returnees”, according to
latest official estimates.
A second scenario would be something closer to the
attacks in Paris 10 months ago . This could involve
either the Isis or al-Qaida, the veteran organisation
once led by Osama bin Laden. It could indeed involve
both, as was the case in January. That strike involved
three local gunmen. One swore allegiance to Isis but
had never had any direct contact with the group. Two
others were brothers, of whom one was tenuously
connected to al-Qaida in Yemen. It was this affiliate of
the group which claimed responsibility for the killings
at the office of satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo.
Al-Qaida, it is worth remembering, is keen to regain
the pre-eminence among the jihadi movement it has
lost to Isis. A spectacular attack in Paris would be one
way to do this.
The third scenario would be local actors, entirely
alone. France has a large pool of alienated, angry,
frustrated young Muslim men, and there have long
been many informal networks of extremists, violent
and non-violent. Most are oriented towards sending
people to Syria, however, not attacking at home.
Few attackers in recent years have been genuine “lone
wolves” either. Most – such as Mohammed Merah,
who shot seven people in Toulouse and Montauban in
2012 or Mehdi Nemmouche, who killed four at a
Jewish museum in Brussels – had links to a group
overseas. We have seen that untrained attackers can
kill in a clinical, cold-blooded way that appears
professional even if they have not been properly
trained, but the kind of co-ordination, preparation and
resources needed for an operation such as that seen
on Friday makes it unlikely to have been the work of
amateurs alone.
Few terrorist tactics or targets are ever entirely
original, but a combination of different elements can
often be innovatory. The tactics adopted in Paris have
been seen in many earlier strikes, but particularly
recall those used by attackers in Mumbai, India’s
commercial capital, in 2008. They hit hotels, cafes, a
Jewish centre and commuters. Since then, security
services have worried about a similar operation in the
west. There have been several scares.
It is possible that the targets hit last night were chosen
to send a particular message. They were not heavily
protected embassies, tourist sites, luxury shops, or
museums. Except for the Stade de France, they were
modest venues in Paris’s less exclusive, more
multicultural eastern neighbourhoods. This may have
been a deliberate act of selection – or may simply be
because the area is well known to the attackers.